Centuries ago, in the 1600s, South American sailors and fishermen noticed occasional periods when seawater temperatures would rise higher than usual. Since this usually happened in December, they called the phenomenon "El Niño de Navidad” (the Christmas child/little boy) – shortened now to “El Niño.”
Hundreds of years later, a similar phenomenon involving cooler-than-normal water in the same region of the Pacific Ocean was identified and given the name La Niña (the little girl).
Today, scientists recognize El Niño and La Niña as significant drivers for weather patterns worldwide, particularly in Asia and for us here in North America. Each year, the presence or absence of an El Niño or La Niña event can tell us a lot about our potential weather patterns – but how can a few degrees of variation in the waters of the Pacific Ocean affect us here, literally half a world away?
What Are El Niño and La Niña?
These two phenomena are closely related, naturally occurring fluctuations in the water temperature in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, a massive portion of the world’s largest ocean, reaching from the coasts of South America to a point more than halfway across the Pacific.
This part of the ocean experiences what’s known as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO cycle). Every 2-7 years, water in this part of the ocean gets warmer, and the area's prevailing east-to-west winds get weaker, allowing warmer water to move east towards the Americas and shifting the jet stream to the south. These warming trends and their associated effects are known as El Niño events, and they typically last 9-12 months, usually peaking in December.
The other end of the oscillation occurs when water temps drop in that part of the Pacific, causing trade winds to strengthen, pushing warm water away from the Americas towards Asia. When this happens, it's referred to as a La Niña.
What Do El Niño and La Niña Mean for Middle Georgia?
Generally speaking, our location on the 32
nd parallel puts us on the dividing line between two regions of Georgia, meaning we can see some pretty unpredictable weather during both El Niño and La Niña events:
- During an El Niño event, the state's southern half is typically wetter and cooler than average, as borne out by our current frigid, rainy winter. As the jet stream moves, that cold, damp weather can move south, putting us back into our typically warmer winter temps, only to see colder weather returning a few days later.
- During a La Niña event, the north half of Georgia is typically warmer than usual, and the southern half of the state is abnormally dry, a condition that puts us in Middle Georgia right in the middle of two masses of air that can interact to form violent storms.
What Will El Niño/La Niña Mean For 2024?
We are in the middle of the first El Niño event in five years. Our winter has undoubtedly demonstrated that with frigid days, freezing nights, and at least one rain shower every few days.
Like most El Niño events, the current one seems to have peaked in December, but we can probably expect to continue seeing cooler, wetter days through the end of spring. That means:
- Your facility's heating equipment must operate at top form to keep your team warm and working at top form.
- Frigid mornings are likely to remain with us for a few more weeks. If you’re managing your HVAC system remotely or on a schedule, you’ll likely want to “pre-heat” the workplace for your morning arrivals.
- High humidity and cold weather together can seriously impact employee health. Help keep your team safe and healthy with indoor air quality solutions.
As regards the remainder of the year, it’s yet to be seen whether the 2023-24 El Niño will give way to a 2024-25 La Niña event, but we'll probably see Eastern Pacific temps dropping soon. If a fully-formed La Niña event occurs, we can expect a hot, stormy summer and a warm, unpredictable autumn. That means:
- If your HVAC, IAQ, and other occupancy systems need maintenance, now's the time to schedule it. The last thing you need is an air conditioning system failure during the heat of a La Niña summer.
- Unless you've chosen to upgrade to more efficient cooling systems this year, you can expect to pay more in energy bills.
- The likelihood of power failures and storm damage is increased, meaning your backup systems will be just as critical as your HVAC system in the coming months.
Pray for Sun, but Prepare for Rain
If nothing else, El Niño and La Niña give us a lesson in preparedness. While we can speak in general about the impact of the ENSO cycle on our weather, making any specific prediction about precisely what each season will entail is simply impossible. Weather is far too complex for that kind of long-term prediction to be successful.
So, what do we do in the face of that kind of uncertainty? We take the advice our parents and grandparents gave us long ago: pray for sun, but prepare for rain. By taking proactive steps, developing plans, and ensuring our tools are sharpened and ready for use, we can be assured that if the worst comes to pass, we're prepared to face it – head-on.
The El Niño/La Niña phenomenon also reminds us how a tiny change can affect literally the entire world. The same truth applies to Mother Nature's changes and those we make in our everyday lives.
After all, if a temperature difference in the ocean 3,000 miles away can completely change the weather we experience here, imagine what kind of impact a small change here at home can make.
Thank you for continuing to be a part of our Hays Service family. Here's hoping for pleasant weather for the rest of 2024, whether we get it or not.
-Coach Cal
